* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 07/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 43 51 56 61 65 68 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 33 37 44 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 3 1 2 4 9 9 14 10 13 9 9 4 SHEAR DIR 175 205 234 114 90 41 15 17 6 29 50 43 56 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 160 159 159 159 157 155 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -53.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 12 9 15 12 16 11 15 9 12 500-300 MB RH 75 71 65 66 63 58 53 52 52 51 49 53 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 5 -1 0 850 MB VORT 13 -11 -23 -13 -15 -11 -14 -22 -22 -13 20 51 50 LAND (KM) -105 -62 39 123 205 111 -25 -225 -387 -361 -290 -200 -119 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 90.4 91.5 92.7 93.8 96.1 98.1 100.0 101.6 102.9 104.0 105.3 106.6 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 51 50 63 75 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 501 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 32. 36. 40. 43. 46. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 32. 36. 40. 43. 46. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.97 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 5.18 Prob of RI= 42.8% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)