* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 49 47 43 41 36 29 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 49 47 43 41 36 29 22 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 7 11 18 19 23 19 23 24 46 39 35 SHEAR DIR 4 11 15 344 355 351 344 334 340 342 1 7 1 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.6 25.4 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 151 148 143 139 134 132 125 114 107 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -53.5 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 15 15 13 9 7 4 4 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 44 47 46 39 37 45 42 40 34 36 42 50 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 -1 0 4 13 12 -6 -8 -14 -18 -69 -5 7 850 MB VORT -73 -60 -38 -29 -35 -43 -34 -30 -31 -28 -63 -115 -99 LAND (KM) 434 514 542 540 539 619 771 923 1042 1031 1006 979 911 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.7 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.7 36.1 37.3 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.1 75.4 74.7 73.8 72.9 70.9 68.4 66.3 64.2 61.7 58.7 56.0 53.5 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 39 33 19 8 7 9 13 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 730 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. -15. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 4.27 Prob of RI= 15.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)