* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 07/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 58 63 67 71 73 74 75 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 51 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 3 2 9 9 15 10 16 6 9 4 6 SHEAR DIR 222 345 99 345 356 28 2 7 8 59 22 42 298 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 164 165 165 164 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 13 11 12 14 16 15 14 13 13 9 500-300 MB RH 71 65 65 60 58 52 54 47 52 46 47 49 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 2 3 0 -2 -2 850 MB VORT -22 -35 -22 -22 -20 -22 -15 -32 -20 -19 29 20 41 LAND (KM) -116 9 134 241 314 151 -10 -197 -360 -425 -500 -567 -615 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.3 22.5 23.8 25.1 26.2 27.2 27.9 28.6 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.7 91.8 92.9 93.9 96.1 97.9 99.6 100.9 101.7 102.4 103.0 103.8 HEAT CONTENT 9999 27 47 56 65 86 62 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 468 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 43. 44. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 43. 44. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 5.25 Prob of RI= 45.0% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)