* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 64 64 62 60 57 53 47 39 33 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 64 64 62 60 57 53 47 39 33 SHEAR (KTS) 14 6 11 16 13 18 17 14 15 22 38 32 18 SHEAR DIR 8 13 336 356 357 343 7 359 2 10 24 43 54 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 25.6 24.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 149 146 145 142 138 133 128 115 107 103 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.3 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 15 16 16 14 13 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 500-300 MB RH 45 42 38 36 40 43 41 46 47 41 39 36 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 3 12 8 17 12 4 -9 7 -27 -6 0 850 MB VORT -49 -46 -30 -31 -54 -54 -57 -36 -15 -27 -54 -78 -77 LAND (KM) 512 575 570 590 624 720 864 1012 1162 1132 1025 907 782 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.5 30.8 31.4 31.6 32.0 32.6 33.8 35.7 37.7 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.4 74.6 73.8 72.8 71.8 69.8 67.8 65.8 63.8 61.5 59.1 56.9 54.8 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 37 23 14 10 14 12 16 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 763 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 3. 0. -7. -14. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. -8. -16. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 4.48 Prob of RI= 18.8% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)