* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 67 65 62 59 55 50 43 35 30 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 66 67 65 62 59 55 50 43 35 30 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 16 16 19 22 19 19 19 25 29 21 12 SHEAR DIR 21 329 347 2 2 359 6 6 30 32 63 61 36 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 148 146 145 142 138 135 133 132 124 113 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.3 -52.4 -53.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 13 10 9 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 42 36 34 37 43 45 44 36 38 33 36 33 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 12 14 21 13 -1 0 -12 -5 -11 2 0 850 MB VORT -42 -38 -38 -35 -36 -61 -37 -28 -18 -73 -102 -121 -78 LAND (KM) 570 583 588 614 650 749 850 938 1021 1110 1163 1123 1098 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.7 32.1 32.4 32.8 33.2 34.2 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 73.9 73.0 72.2 71.3 69.6 67.9 66.6 65.5 64.3 62.7 60.4 57.6 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 25 16 10 13 13 12 12 15 9 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 732 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -16. -23. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -10. -17. -25. -30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.57 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.41 Prob of RI= 17.1% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)