* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * SEVEN 07/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 28 34 40 45 48 53 57 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 3 7 5 9 9 14 12 13 11 10 8 SHEAR DIR 165 147 21 52 77 360 7 2 12 18 35 40 55 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 160 155 154 152 149 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 9 12 13 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 500-300 MB RH 66 67 65 62 55 55 49 54 51 60 59 66 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 7 0 3 850 MB VORT -28 -19 -11 -9 -17 -9 -20 -15 -11 22 32 57 40 LAND (KM) 85 150 134 47 -39 -164 -301 -338 -239 -154 -79 -52 -29 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.8 23.3 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 92.9 94.0 95.1 96.3 97.4 99.3 100.8 102.2 103.3 104.2 105.0 105.8 106.8 HEAT CONTENT 49 52 56 61 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 25. 30. 33. 37. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SEVEN 7/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.53 Prob of RI= 20.1% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)