* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 28 34 40 45 49 55 58 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 3 7 4 11 11 14 10 12 10 10 8 SHEAR DIR 160 144 21 49 63 355 10 359 16 17 42 39 59 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 160 157 155 154 152 151 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 9 12 13 14 14 12 11 11 10 9 500-300 MB RH 66 66 65 62 53 55 48 55 48 59 59 66 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 8 2 4 850 MB VORT -30 -22 -14 -12 -20 -10 -20 -16 -7 24 37 58 41 LAND (KM) 102 168 154 73 -7 -144 -287 -368 -267 -181 -126 -96 -66 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.9 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.9 95.0 96.2 97.3 99.2 100.7 102.1 103.2 104.1 104.9 105.8 106.8 HEAT CONTENT 49 55 58 64 65 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 25. 31. 35. 38. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 30. 33. 38. 38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 4.50 Prob of RI= 19.5% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)