* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 59 57 54 52 51 48 45 38 33 27 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 59 57 54 52 51 48 45 38 33 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 16 20 24 31 27 19 16 19 23 27 23 22 SHEAR DIR 327 336 355 356 1 4 6 20 22 45 72 92 122 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 148 146 143 141 138 134 132 128 122 115 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 12 11 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 500-300 MB RH 34 35 37 44 49 46 47 43 40 36 32 31 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 13 20 24 2 10 -6 -5 -15 -17 1 -4 -2 850 MB VORT -32 -30 -42 -52 -57 -42 -13 -14 -63 -90 -120 -121 -90 LAND (KM) 597 616 643 683 728 842 941 1043 1134 1167 1132 1110 1101 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.3 31.4 31.7 32.4 33.1 33.8 34.5 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 72.7 71.9 71.1 70.2 68.3 67.0 65.6 64.2 62.8 61.5 59.9 58.3 HEAT CONTENT 33 21 14 11 10 17 15 11 14 10 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 738 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. -26. -32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -22. -27. -33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 88.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.56 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 3.61 Prob of RI= 7.1% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)