* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * SEVEN 07/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 50 53 57 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 9 8 12 17 14 16 10 12 8 11 9 SHEAR DIR 168 39 34 52 13 11 346 9 355 17 359 353 341 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 157 155 155 155 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 15 12 17 12 15 11 15 12 16 500-300 MB RH 67 64 62 55 52 54 53 53 57 68 66 69 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -3 -7 0 -3 9 2 3 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -27 -22 -21 -21 -21 -30 -15 -23 2 26 33 -3 -28 LAND (KM) 127 131 119 82 44 -41 -151 -257 -339 -374 -359 -316 -295 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.7 23.2 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.5 95.2 95.8 96.4 97.8 99.3 100.4 101.2 101.8 101.4 100.9 100.7 HEAT CONTENT 48 53 55 57 64 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 573 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 25. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SEVEN 7/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 5.13 Prob of RI= 41.1% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)