* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 48 46 44 42 41 39 36 31 27 21 V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 48 46 44 42 41 39 36 31 27 21 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 23 27 27 19 20 19 32 28 21 9 18 SHEAR DIR 344 357 351 356 355 5 8 12 31 64 80 124 250 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 143 141 137 133 132 127 121 110 104 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 11 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 2 500-300 MB RH 34 38 44 49 45 48 38 40 32 34 29 31 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 19 19 13 -8 0 -9 -19 -16 -15 -8 4 0 8 850 MB VORT -29 -47 -56 -51 -48 -17 -2 -5 -54 -102 -124 -74 -61 LAND (KM) 613 640 678 720 766 834 895 1015 1095 1068 1000 934 813 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.7 31.0 31.3 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.3 35.3 37.1 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 71.8 70.8 70.0 69.1 67.9 66.9 65.3 63.5 61.9 60.7 58.2 54.5 HEAT CONTENT 22 13 9 10 14 10 10 13 13 7 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 752 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -16. -19. -24. -28. -34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.16 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 2.93 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)