* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GERT 07/24/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 62 68 71 74 77 78 76 76 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 8 6 6 13 11 15 11 12 6 12 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 330 34 47 360 356 5 338 357 8 341 312 323 9999 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 160 159 159 162 164 165 164 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 13 16 14 16 14 14 12 14 11 12 N/A 500-300 MB RH 63 61 55 50 54 47 50 52 59 64 66 63 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -5 0 2 6 7 0 -11 -5 N/A 850 MB VORT -22 -15 -19 -14 -15 -16 0 0 42 38 30 -24 N/A LAND (KM) 133 99 39 4 -42 -155 -306 -409 -457 -464 -474 -469 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.3 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.2 27.3 28.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.6 96.4 97.1 97.8 99.4 100.8 102.2 102.3 102.0 102.2 101.9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 54 63 69 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 548 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 30. 34. 39. 43. 44. 43. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 33. 36. 39. 42. 43. 42. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GERT 7/24/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 5.64 Prob of RI= 58.2% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)