* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 47 45 43 38 34 30 26 19 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 47 45 43 38 34 30 26 19 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 25 24 23 18 20 25 27 20 11 1 21 SHEAR DIR 357 352 353 353 356 2 22 29 52 54 75 313 264 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.0 25.4 24.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 145 143 139 135 132 127 119 114 106 100 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 4 0 500-300 MB RH 38 43 46 47 46 42 38 36 36 38 33 36 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 25 17 10 -4 -4 -2 -7 -13 -6 0 1 1 1 850 MB VORT -39 -49 -36 -33 -6 8 2 -44 -83 -68 -89 -72 -37 LAND (KM) 624 671 720 761 807 897 982 1057 1007 938 954 891 722 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.9 32.5 33.5 34.7 35.8 36.5 38.1 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 70.9 70.0 69.3 68.5 67.2 65.9 64.3 62.7 61.0 59.0 56.2 52.8 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 10 14 14 12 11 13 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 808 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -23. -29. -35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 90.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.58 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.08 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.17 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.18 Scaled RI index= 2.85 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)