* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GERT 07/24/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 53 59 63 66 67 70 70 69 69 V (KT) LAND 35 39 37 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 8 13 15 13 16 16 18 16 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 24 4 352 3 336 350 348 6 346 1 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 162 159 159 160 164 165 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -52.9 -52.1 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 16 14 13 17 12 16 11 16 9 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 65 54 56 56 54 52 51 57 60 58 63 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -3 -6 -4 -3 2 6 -7 -8 -23 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -12 -23 -19 -23 -28 -26 -21 -1 16 36 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 127 65 -14 -50 -127 -254 -387 -395 -399 -449 -440 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.7 26.6 27.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.7 97.5 98.3 99.1 100.3 101.6 101.7 101.5 101.9 101.8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 71 74 64 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 608 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 34. 35. 35. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 35. 35. 34. 34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GERT 7/24/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.82 Scaled RI index= 5.84 Prob of RI= 64.8% is 5.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)