* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/24/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 40 38 37 36 34 33 32 30 23 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 40 38 37 36 34 33 32 30 23 SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 26 26 22 15 20 19 18 16 18 15 18 SHEAR DIR 347 350 350 350 358 350 17 44 81 107 127 154 189 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.6 25.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 142 139 137 133 131 128 123 115 113 100 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 7 5 1 500-300 MB RH 43 46 50 52 52 42 43 33 35 33 36 40 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 25 12 1 3 0 -1 1 -15 0 4 4 11 4 850 MB VORT -52 -55 -52 -27 -13 -10 11 -49 -50 -75 -47 -66 -98 LAND (KM) 634 687 746 786 828 890 963 982 939 875 816 777 721 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.6 31.7 31.9 32.1 32.6 33.2 34.0 34.9 35.9 37.0 38.5 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.1 69.2 68.6 67.9 66.9 65.8 64.9 64.0 62.8 61.0 58.5 55.4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 13 12 9 10 10 11 11 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 828 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -20. -25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -20. -27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/24/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 92.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.60 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.16 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 2.56 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)