* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/25/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 29 28 26 25 24 22 24 26 26 22 V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 28 26 25 24 22 24 26 26 22 SHEAR (KTS) 29 25 27 23 19 25 25 24 23 14 10 14 26 SHEAR DIR 357 358 352 3 358 357 30 52 68 95 115 196 228 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 25.9 25.6 24.8 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 142 139 134 132 129 127 118 115 109 93 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 6 2 1 500-300 MB RH 43 45 50 53 48 45 38 39 38 42 44 50 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 4 0 -4 0 -2 -8 -17 -3 11 -5 -5 3 850 MB VORT -40 -43 -16 -6 -4 7 -12 -48 -52 -34 -29 -39 -55 LAND (KM) 621 669 721 759 802 862 932 934 885 795 762 696 617 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.4 31.6 32.0 32.3 33.1 33.6 34.4 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.6 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.5 70.6 69.6 68.9 68.1 67.0 66.0 65.1 64.0 62.2 59.9 57.4 54.8 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 11 11 8 8 10 11 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 831 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. -14. -13. -13. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -16. -14. -14. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/25/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 2.43 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)