* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/25/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 29 29 30 30 31 34 33 31 25 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 29 29 30 30 31 34 33 31 25 SHEAR (KTS) 25 24 22 21 21 21 27 23 16 18 16 8 2 SHEAR DIR 360 4 7 1 2 11 34 59 75 95 124 132 44 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.3 24.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 148 146 139 135 133 131 123 113 106 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 9 9 11 11 11 9 7 5 2 500-300 MB RH 48 49 52 46 43 46 42 47 43 47 46 43 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 8 6 4 8 9 -6 9 1 -20 -5 1 -3 850 MB VORT -28 -6 -7 -18 -11 2 -39 -37 -55 -48 -87 -84 -84 LAND (KM) 708 733 758 806 859 936 999 1069 1043 970 898 840 694 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.8 32.5 33.2 34.1 35.3 37.0 38.7 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 70.5 70.2 69.3 68.4 66.8 65.7 64.6 63.4 61.6 59.2 56.0 52.0 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 17 20 13 12 14 10 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 606 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. -4. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -1. -2. -4. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/25/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 2.89 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)