* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/25/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 34 37 39 40 40 42 40 38 33 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 34 37 39 40 40 42 40 38 33 SHEAR (KTS) 26 23 19 18 17 13 19 13 9 5 11 15 21 SHEAR DIR 357 356 352 348 4 49 74 92 107 118 266 267 248 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.7 25.6 24.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 152 149 145 138 132 128 126 115 106 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 11 11 11 10 8 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 49 54 50 45 47 38 39 40 39 38 41 37 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 13 5 2 3 1 3 -2 -1 -10 1 2 0 1 850 MB VORT -15 -12 -5 9 30 20 -4 -33 -32 -19 -24 -14 -15 LAND (KM) 741 771 802 820 839 845 865 902 872 778 602 505 460 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.6 32.1 32.8 33.7 34.9 36.6 38.8 40.8 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 69.9 69.4 68.8 68.5 68.1 67.7 67.1 66.3 65.4 63.9 61.9 59.6 56.6 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 17 15 13 9 8 10 13 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 4. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/25/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.18 Scaled RI index= 3.27 Prob of RI= 3.8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)