* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/25/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 39 41 42 42 42 42 39 35 28 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 39 41 42 42 42 42 39 35 28 SHEAR (KTS) 24 21 20 21 19 18 19 16 8 11 22 32 43 SHEAR DIR 358 356 354 7 25 56 82 102 130 258 260 255 251 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.4 24.8 21.5 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 152 151 143 135 131 129 123 109 90 77 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 9 5 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 48 45 43 42 43 34 39 40 45 46 46 40 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 2 4 -8 -6 -10 0 2 0 -8 12 850 MB VORT -19 -19 -2 15 19 -27 -36 -60 -40 -45 -46 -24 -5 LAND (KM) 763 781 801 808 815 827 862 909 828 685 505 366 308 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.4 31.6 32.3 33.1 34.1 35.5 37.5 40.0 42.2 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 69.3 68.9 68.7 68.4 67.8 67.0 66.1 65.1 63.6 61.6 59.3 56.2 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 23 20 18 9 9 10 16 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 646 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 6. 1. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. 0. -7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/25/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 3.58 Prob of RI= 6.7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)