* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/26/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 35 37 38 38 40 41 39 35 28 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 35 37 38 38 40 41 39 35 28 SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 21 20 21 22 15 9 5 12 17 31 39 SHEAR DIR 1 358 4 16 35 70 92 108 229 263 276 239 232 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.0 27.2 26.0 24.1 19.7 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 152 149 141 133 129 132 119 104 83 72 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 8 4 2 0 0 500-300 MB RH 42 42 42 42 37 37 36 42 43 45 52 48 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 7 8 -13 -6 1 4 0 0 4 38 850 MB VORT -33 -10 5 11 0 -30 -75 -43 -44 -44 -47 -12 -6 LAND (KM) 872 881 890 890 892 882 867 839 748 614 477 395 178 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.4 32.4 33.7 34.9 36.2 38.2 40.9 43.1 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.3 68.0 67.8 67.6 67.1 66.7 66.2 65.4 63.4 60.2 57.0 52.9 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 26 23 19 11 10 11 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 5. 1. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 0. -7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/26/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.36 Prob of RI= 4.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)