* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/26/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 43 44 44 43 41 37 32 25 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 43 44 44 43 41 37 32 25 SHEAR (KTS) 24 21 19 18 21 15 8 3 9 17 25 36 45 SHEAR DIR 351 360 7 23 39 74 92 176 258 259 262 242 246 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.8 25.2 22.9 17.6 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 148 145 141 134 131 132 127 112 96 78 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 11 11 11 12 7 4 2 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 41 41 42 38 32 36 34 46 47 46 49 44 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 8 6 -4 -2 0 -1 2 -5 -7 1 27 850 MB VORT -6 12 16 0 -19 -29 -40 -26 -42 -54 -47 -30 -15 LAND (KM) 870 871 875 862 852 826 809 749 683 540 434 333 162 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.4 31.7 32.1 32.5 33.6 34.5 35.8 37.4 39.4 41.7 43.8 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 67.9 67.6 67.5 67.4 67.2 67.1 66.2 64.5 62.0 58.8 55.5 51.7 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 15 11 8 8 13 7 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 655 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 3. -2. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/26/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 3.91 Prob of RI= 10.6% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)