* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 40 36 32 27 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 40 36 32 27 22 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 21 17 20 15 11 8 23 24 22 25 42 50 SHEAR DIR 360 21 33 35 60 93 198 252 262 268 242 242 240 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.3 24.6 22.9 20.6 16.7 12.8 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 139 135 132 133 107 96 86 76 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 40 41 37 33 35 31 40 42 52 52 52 45 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 8 3 -4 -4 2 4 3 -1 0 8 0 8 850 MB VORT 12 18 12 -12 -21 -26 1 -51 -51 -67 -24 -56 -49 LAND (KM) 834 827 822 798 777 745 574 466 418 342 289 154 400 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.1 32.4 33.0 33.5 35.3 37.6 39.4 41.0 42.6 44.2 45.7 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 68.0 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.5 66.3 64.3 61.7 58.9 55.5 51.7 47.5 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 5 4 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 713 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 26. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -1. -6. -12. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -13. -21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 3.52 Prob of RI= 5.9% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)