* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/26/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 45 49 52 56 59 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 45 49 52 56 59 59 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 10 10 8 6 3 4 3 7 10 7 8 SHEAR DIR 77 82 85 74 60 91 78 109 215 220 300 264 271 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 149 146 141 141 145 149 152 155 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 500-300 MB RH 55 51 53 54 58 63 69 69 63 58 52 51 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 32 31 29 13 -5 -16 0 -2 -22 -15 -42 -51 -37 LAND (KM) 1271 1306 1260 1208 1174 1159 1140 1154 1184 1099 983 894 817 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.3 10.1 10.9 11.6 13.0 14.1 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 40.3 41.5 42.7 43.8 45.8 47.7 49.5 51.2 52.9 54.6 56.4 58.0 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 39 41 39 35 38 62 79 79 77 78 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 661 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 68 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/26/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.72 Prob of RI= 26.0% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)