* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 41 40 37 35 31 26 18 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 41 40 37 35 31 26 18 SHEAR (KTS) 24 17 17 14 14 6 8 17 19 25 39 47 49 SHEAR DIR 27 38 42 45 72 138 212 251 237 246 240 258 245 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.2 24.6 23.2 22.1 19.8 16.1 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 138 134 133 134 132 107 98 92 84 75 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 9 5 2 3 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 38 35 32 34 34 34 45 50 47 48 44 40 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 0 -5 -2 2 5 0 1 -7 -8 -4 10 -19 850 MB VORT 16 -1 -14 -15 -31 -14 -15 -52 -61 -54 -60 -24 -23 LAND (KM) 785 776 770 748 731 670 534 460 401 381 365 267 178 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.8 33.2 33.8 34.4 36.1 38.0 39.4 40.5 41.7 43.0 44.4 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.2 68.0 68.0 68.0 67.5 66.4 64.7 62.8 60.6 57.8 54.7 51.0 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 6 8 14 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 634 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -4. -9. -17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.23 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 3.34 Prob of RI= 3.9% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)