* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/26/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 43 49 54 57 62 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 43 49 54 57 54 61 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 10 12 14 9 15 6 9 6 12 6 6 SHEAR DIR 80 77 54 40 48 37 39 53 46 39 56 58 74 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 152 149 151 155 157 155 154 154 155 157 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 58 55 60 60 56 64 64 65 53 47 43 42 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 48 43 22 10 -3 1 1 10 14 19 11 20 34 LAND (KM) 1197 1096 1007 932 877 778 770 703 508 522 250 -29 22 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.2 9.5 10.0 10.4 11.3 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.8 18.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 42.7 43.9 45.3 46.6 49.4 52.2 55.1 58.1 61.1 63.9 66.7 69.3 HEAT CONTENT 59 53 54 58 53 53 79 90 84 87 91 9999 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 24. 29. 34. 37. 42. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 23. 29. 34. 37. 42. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/26/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 25.0% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)