* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 38 39 39 37 34 30 25 17 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 37 38 39 39 37 34 30 25 17 SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 16 15 13 2 10 16 14 29 40 43 50 SHEAR DIR 39 48 53 68 87 80 235 226 240 233 255 246 254 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.1 24.8 24.0 22.8 19.8 15.1 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 137 133 132 135 131 109 103 96 84 74 71 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 33 31 32 32 30 37 45 45 44 42 34 41 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 1 0 -5 0 -5 35 850 MB VORT 0 -18 -18 -37 -40 -20 -43 -49 -66 -67 -52 -58 -51 LAND (KM) 768 765 767 751 742 654 562 483 466 421 426 257 338 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.8 33.3 34.0 34.7 36.4 38.0 39.3 40.4 41.7 43.0 44.4 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.3 68.0 67.9 67.8 67.1 65.9 64.0 61.7 59.2 56.1 52.7 48.8 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 6 10 15 9 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -9. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.19 Scaled RI index= 3.23 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)