* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 42 50 56 61 64 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 42 50 56 61 64 67 68 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 9 13 9 3 2 2 2 8 2 7 6 SHEAR DIR 79 70 49 55 79 43 144 326 353 9 283 321 229 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 148 145 145 146 149 152 155 157 157 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 500-300 MB RH 56 61 63 63 62 70 68 64 57 51 47 48 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 1 1 850 MB VORT 47 34 18 7 0 6 15 -10 -24 -48 -56 -40 -28 LAND (KM) 1115 1060 1027 1024 1022 1064 1128 1069 1016 943 759 559 350 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.5 11.2 12.0 12.8 14.2 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 44.2 45.4 46.5 47.6 49.5 51.3 53.1 54.8 56.7 58.5 60.4 62.4 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 52 53 50 62 76 77 72 73 65 70 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 549 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 29. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 23. 31. 37. 41. 44. 47. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 22. 30. 36. 41. 44. 47. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.48 Prob of RI= 19.0% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)