* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 41 40 38 34 29 21 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 41 40 38 34 29 21 SHEAR (KTS) 19 14 12 12 8 5 21 26 31 46 50 50 48 SHEAR DIR 47 64 80 92 128 240 251 234 229 230 242 234 234 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.7 25.1 22.1 20.9 17.8 13.9 11.8 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 137 134 133 138 111 92 87 78 72 70 72 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 10 7 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 31 31 34 32 35 48 47 46 45 45 34 41 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 5 -4 5 -1 5 18 18 7 850 MB VORT -7 -13 -20 -26 -3 -14 -30 -35 -36 -36 -8 18 26 LAND (KM) 718 701 687 683 688 582 478 350 334 345 155 288 607 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.6 35.3 37.0 39.2 40.9 42.3 43.8 45.3 46.8 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 68.8 68.7 68.5 68.3 67.4 65.7 63.1 60.1 56.8 53.1 49.2 44.7 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 7 14 18 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 526 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 28. 32. 32. 30. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 1. -5. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.02 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.26 Prob of RI= 3.8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)