* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 53 58 62 65 69 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 53 58 62 65 69 71 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 9 6 2 6 1 4 3 6 1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 78 55 50 73 72 31 125 26 68 49 282 31 243 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 146 146 149 152 155 157 157 157 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 60 61 61 62 66 65 66 58 47 45 43 42 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 -2 0 -2 850 MB VORT 35 17 -1 -10 -6 2 -3 -24 -53 -62 -52 -33 -10 LAND (KM) 1025 994 975 968 981 1028 1071 979 903 844 678 489 275 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.1 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.1 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.5 46.7 47.8 48.9 50.8 52.3 54.0 55.7 57.5 59.3 61.1 63.2 HEAT CONTENT 51 55 54 55 59 71 88 80 82 76 75 82 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 539 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 24. 32. 38. 42. 45. 49. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 33. 38. 42. 46. 50. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.4% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)