* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 43 46 49 53 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 43 46 49 53 55 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 14 14 11 9 7 7 9 6 4 7 13 SHEAR DIR 66 63 66 75 88 107 140 186 197 207 309 359 336 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 139 139 146 152 152 151 149 152 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 54 52 50 54 53 54 59 58 61 57 58 55 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 6 0 -3 -1 850 MB VORT -30 -40 -45 -31 -14 10 22 22 27 29 40 47 31 LAND (KM) 1506 1600 1695 1711 1640 1514 1391 1143 949 805 710 710 743 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.9 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 31.9 32.8 33.9 35.0 37.5 40.1 42.8 45.3 47.8 50.2 52.4 54.2 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 19 16 20 24 40 49 57 53 64 81 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 498 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 27. 30. 34. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 33. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 22.7% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)