* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 37 40 40 38 36 33 28 25 19 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 37 40 40 38 36 33 28 25 19 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 12 5 6 4 14 18 19 30 40 53 54 SHEAR DIR 51 79 104 87 108 234 230 251 225 226 226 222 222 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.6 26.7 23.0 21.4 16.6 12.6 13.7 16.0 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 134 134 137 126 97 89 76 71 72 75 73 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 10 9 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 32 33 33 36 42 47 46 43 51 41 37 38 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 2 -2 2 -1 1 0 0 0 4 15 26 9 850 MB VORT -16 -32 -24 0 -14 -30 -22 -56 -52 -67 -58 -9 28 LAND (KM) 675 668 666 688 627 531 392 367 292 286 600 952 1322 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.9 34.5 35.5 36.4 38.3 40.5 42.3 44.1 45.8 47.4 49.1 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.9 68.7 68.3 67.8 66.0 63.0 59.0 54.3 49.6 44.8 40.0 34.9 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 14 18 20 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 522 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 29. 33. 35. 34. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -6. -10. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -7. -10. -16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 3.62 Prob of RI= 7.1% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)