* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 44 52 57 62 66 71 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 44 52 57 62 66 71 73 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 7 6 4 4 6 5 6 5 2 2 8 SHEAR DIR 69 67 74 53 7 32 349 55 24 132 354 48 4 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 149 152 154 157 157 157 157 157 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 500-300 MB RH 55 58 62 65 67 66 67 62 57 54 54 54 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 850 MB VORT 31 11 0 -4 0 0 -4 -13 -37 -6 -5 10 13 LAND (KM) 955 929 906 913 928 993 902 859 830 654 486 312 137 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.8 15.9 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 47.0 48.3 49.5 50.7 52.8 54.5 56.1 57.8 59.5 61.1 62.8 64.7 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 56 54 64 92 84 84 75 72 65 76 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 23. 31. 36. 42. 46. 51. 54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 42. 46. 51. 53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.60 Prob of RI= 21.8% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)