* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 36 39 40 43 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 36 39 40 43 40 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 18 13 11 7 6 6 7 8 17 12 26 SHEAR DIR 76 79 92 101 116 184 232 232 284 293 344 341 352 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 138 137 139 148 148 146 148 152 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 53 50 53 53 54 48 51 49 54 50 52 53 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 2 1 2 0 0 -2 -5 0 5 850 MB VORT -28 -36 -31 -24 -19 -11 6 8 2 -8 -13 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1590 1704 1743 1691 1649 1562 1313 1107 936 836 831 747 628 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.3 13.1 14.1 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.9 34.0 35.2 36.4 39.0 41.7 44.5 47.4 50.3 52.9 55.0 57.0 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 14 16 19 31 32 43 55 58 88 92 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 23. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 4.11 Prob of RI= 13.1% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)