* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 49 47 44 40 37 31 25 17 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 49 47 44 40 37 31 25 17 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 10 7 7 12 26 31 40 48 52 57 55 SHEAR DIR 71 89 99 97 139 231 236 242 231 240 231 231 229 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.6 25.2 23.0 19.4 13.7 11.6 13.9 14.8 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 133 135 137 112 97 82 72 70 72 73 73 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -51.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 32 32 35 42 48 41 41 45 41 37 43 47 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 1 2 -3 -2 -1 3 3 -5 7 -3 -3 -32 850 MB VORT -24 -35 -16 -16 -13 -56 -58 -55 -77 -51 -21 -10 25 LAND (KM) 642 652 672 658 587 499 421 386 157 335 674 1025 1402 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.4 35.1 36.2 37.2 39.1 41.2 43.2 45.3 47.2 48.9 50.6 52.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 68.9 68.5 67.7 66.8 64.3 61.0 57.0 52.8 48.4 43.8 39.1 34.0 HEAT CONTENT 7 13 18 17 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 438 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 20. 24. 29. 34. 36. 35. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 3. -1. -6. -12. -19. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -14. -20. -28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 3.48 Prob of RI= 5.4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)