* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 38 48 58 65 72 76 81 82 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 38 48 58 65 72 76 81 82 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 3 5 4 6 3 3 1 4 5 8 8 SHEAR DIR 85 140 241 321 320 294 338 318 341 250 316 267 293 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 154 155 155 157 157 157 157 157 157 155 155 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 55 61 64 64 64 65 64 56 56 50 55 53 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 850 MB VORT 34 28 16 10 9 0 20 1 6 13 27 19 44 LAND (KM) 897 896 901 951 903 844 869 739 617 547 525 519 572 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.2 14.9 16.3 17.7 18.8 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.1 51.4 52.6 53.8 55.6 57.2 58.7 60.1 61.2 62.2 63.1 64.0 HEAT CONTENT 56 56 71 90 92 81 76 68 66 60 47 49 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 18. 28. 38. 45. 52. 56. 61. 64. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 28. 38. 45. 52. 56. 61. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.66 Prob of RI= 23.7% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)