* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 35 37 37 38 40 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 35 37 37 38 40 38 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 13 10 6 4 4 7 9 16 17 20 22 SHEAR DIR 80 91 93 101 136 247 319 333 345 335 358 347 12 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 135 138 142 148 145 143 146 152 155 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 52 54 56 54 50 53 49 54 49 52 53 58 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -7 -2 -3 -6 -4 850 MB VORT -33 -31 -28 -26 -27 -5 -10 -13 -24 -25 -14 -6 -19 LAND (KM) 1690 1762 1724 1676 1636 1489 1259 1088 981 944 892 767 706 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.9 35.0 36.2 37.4 40.0 42.9 45.8 48.7 51.4 53.8 55.9 57.9 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 15 18 20 34 30 45 58 74 91 81 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 633 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 21. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 20. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 4.14 Prob of RI= 13.4% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)