* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * PROTON 07/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 113 102 89 77 57 42 33 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 113 102 89 77 57 42 33 25 20 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 37 38 42 41 46 48 49 46 45 38 38 36 SHEAR DIR 243 258 266 274 275 276 273 266 268 272 273 279 286 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 135 137 139 140 140 141 143 144 144 145 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -55.9 -56.0 -56.6 -55.9 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 9 8 500-300 MB RH 16 16 16 17 19 25 32 40 45 44 48 42 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 12 6 3 0 10 3 9 7 21 -4 -4 -12 850 MB VORT -9 -10 -18 -20 -14 -29 -22 -36 -33 -34 -36 -42 -44 LAND (KM) 33 137 256 324 381 478 623 756 921 1115 1324 1526 1709 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 156.0 157.2 158.3 159.5 160.7 163.0 165.0 166.7 168.5 170.5 172.6 174.6 176.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 667 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -12. -16. -23. -29. -34. -39. -43. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR -8. -18. -29. -37. -51. -61. -66. -70. -73. -75. -76. -76. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -17. -30. -42. -64. -80. -90. -99.-106.-111.-115.-117. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -18. -31. -43. -63. -78. -87. -95.-100.-104.-110.-115. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PROTON 7/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 38.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 55.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.75 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)