* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 50 50 48 43 40 36 31 26 18 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 50 50 48 43 40 36 31 26 18 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 6 6 9 18 23 26 42 45 49 53 53 SHEAR DIR 94 113 126 132 211 237 252 232 245 238 231 226 228 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.4 24.9 22.8 18.1 12.8 12.5 15.5 14.8 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 134 137 134 110 96 79 71 71 74 73 73 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -52.8 -51.9 -50.7 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 8 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 30 33 39 46 42 40 39 51 43 41 39 41 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 5 0 0 -1 -5 2 6 -2 13 5 -1 -37 850 MB VORT -25 -23 -10 -26 -41 -74 -71 -63 -46 -31 25 45 41 LAND (KM) 619 649 675 628 583 492 415 355 209 489 835 1187 1460 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.9 35.7 36.6 37.5 39.3 41.6 43.6 45.5 47.3 48.9 50.6 52.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 68.8 68.2 67.3 66.3 63.6 59.8 55.5 51.0 46.3 41.6 36.8 31.7 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 19 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 438 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 30. 34. 36. 35. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -12. -18. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 90.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.58 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 3.76 Prob of RI= 8.9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)