* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 43 49 53 56 59 62 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 43 49 53 56 59 62 62 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 13 14 14 18 11 11 10 13 10 16 12 SHEAR DIR 228 245 271 260 245 271 239 268 245 275 277 293 283 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 154 155 155 157 157 157 157 157 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 500-300 MB RH 49 53 58 60 57 60 60 55 54 53 48 50 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 4 5 4 3 3 0 1 1 3 3 2 3 850 MB VORT 40 33 29 20 10 4 -1 -34 -35 -38 -13 -3 4 LAND (KM) 1137 1102 1018 980 961 837 704 626 639 667 708 759 771 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.3 17.9 19.2 20.5 21.8 23.1 24.0 24.7 25.3 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.4 53.7 54.8 55.9 57.8 59.4 61.0 62.3 63.4 64.4 65.3 66.3 HEAT CONTENT 78 88 75 76 73 71 58 55 42 44 44 47 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 516 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 29. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. 42. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.93 Scaled RI index= 4.57 Prob of RI= 21.0% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)