* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 38 41 42 44 45 47 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 33 38 41 42 44 45 47 SHEAR (KTS) 20 14 14 11 5 7 4 10 10 17 15 20 8 SHEAR DIR 90 88 89 109 129 242 269 299 306 329 335 7 24 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 142 146 149 152 151 149 151 155 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 52 52 55 51 51 51 49 55 55 60 57 60 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 7 10 0 850 MB VORT -24 -17 -13 -11 -5 2 7 19 9 3 13 17 52 LAND (KM) 1673 1624 1584 1540 1507 1303 1080 914 798 768 836 709 671 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.3 14.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.3 36.4 37.6 38.7 41.3 44.0 46.7 49.2 51.6 53.6 55.6 57.1 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 23 32 34 50 55 52 75 86 85 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 16. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. 27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)