* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * RYDELL 07/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 75 67 60 47 38 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 83 75 67 60 47 38 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 31 31 32 33 37 38 44 44 45 45 46 46 SHEAR DIR 246 244 255 254 252 259 262 265 263 265 268 271 272 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 126 126 126 127 131 135 138 140 141 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 500-300 MB RH 13 13 17 18 19 23 24 25 25 28 33 33 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 8 24 20 8 0 6 4 4 -1 -4 -19 15 850 MB VORT -11 -15 -12 -6 -1 0 -9 -30 -33 -29 -35 -43 -43 LAND (KM) 701 582 470 368 283 196 318 442 492 601 726 846 1000 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 150.0 151.2 152.5 153.7 156.1 158.4 160.4 162.3 164.2 166.0 167.5 169.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -10. -16. -21. -30. -36. -41. -46. -50. -53. -57. -60. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -24. -31. -46. -57. -65. -73. -79. -84. -89. -93. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -15. -23. -30. -43. -52. -60. -67. -71. -76. -83. -90. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RYDELL 7/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 2.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.63 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)