* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 41 47 50 53 56 60 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 41 47 50 53 56 60 60 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 19 18 21 12 16 6 15 13 13 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 244 254 253 250 256 249 255 251 261 282 288 309 9999 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 155 155 157 157 157 157 157 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A 500-300 MB RH 47 56 61 59 58 64 53 56 50 52 47 56 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 4 3 2 3 2 1 1 3 3 4 1 N/A 850 MB VORT 29 29 23 10 -1 3 -23 -35 -40 -20 -24 -11 N/A LAND (KM) 1106 1035 986 973 917 738 637 605 622 649 673 703 674 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 20.0 21.3 22.5 23.4 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 53.7 55.0 56.0 57.0 58.9 60.5 62.0 63.1 64.2 65.1 66.0 66.9 HEAT CONTENT 85 76 74 72 73 70 53 46 47 45 47 51 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 36. 40. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 11.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)