* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 44 49 53 55 56 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 44 49 53 55 56 57 SHEAR (KTS) 13 8 7 5 5 9 4 6 10 12 13 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 91 106 113 142 194 249 298 328 338 358 337 356 9999 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 148 149 151 151 149 151 154 157 155 154 154 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 N/A 500-300 MB RH 48 49 52 53 52 50 56 55 60 52 54 52 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 N/A 850 MB VORT -29 -17 -8 -6 -9 1 26 28 29 26 -6 -41 N/A LAND (KM) 1606 1577 1557 1494 1370 1128 912 740 644 655 617 516 462 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.5 13.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.1 38.2 39.5 40.7 43.4 46.2 48.9 51.4 53.7 55.6 57.2 58.7 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 24 38 35 46 54 52 77 79 84 87 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 518 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 25. 30. 34. 36. 37. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.33 Prob of RI= 15.8% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)