* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 47 45 40 35 30 26 24 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 47 45 40 35 30 26 24 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 7 10 15 21 34 46 48 55 54 48 N/A SHEAR DIR 166 144 214 248 261 236 222 236 240 247 248 251 9999 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.2 25.7 22.7 18.8 13.2 12.3 15.6 14.7 14.6 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 132 116 95 81 72 71 74 73 73 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -51.1 -49.5 -47.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 36 42 44 42 40 43 51 35 36 38 45 49 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 0 -7 -16 5 5 -4 0 -20 2 9 N/A 850 MB VORT -8 -28 -43 -66 -71 -69 -55 -36 -44 22 59 98 N/A LAND (KM) 594 598 575 541 512 410 354 163 481 900 1303 1324 933 LAT (DEG N) 35.8 36.4 37.0 38.0 38.9 41.1 43.4 45.4 47.4 49.3 50.9 52.6 54.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 68.4 67.6 66.4 65.1 61.7 57.3 52.1 46.4 40.7 35.2 29.8 24.3 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 24 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 662 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 23. 28. 35. 40. 42. 37. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -17. -20. -25. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -26. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 87.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.55 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 3.98 Prob of RI= 11.5% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)