* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 55 60 63 65 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 55 60 63 65 67 69 70 SHEAR (KTS) 22 21 26 24 17 13 13 12 13 11 10 13 20 SHEAR DIR 245 249 247 259 266 225 253 215 240 237 246 272 276 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 154 155 155 157 155 159 157 159 160 164 162 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 9 500-300 MB RH 57 61 56 56 59 54 46 42 39 38 40 45 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 7 6 6 6 3 5 7 3 1 0 -2 -14 850 MB VORT 32 25 10 -2 2 8 12 7 -21 -28 -46 -11 -42 LAND (KM) 1237 1170 1109 972 840 527 338 383 475 644 747 718 490 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.6 24.0 25.6 27.1 29.1 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 53.8 55.2 56.6 57.9 61.3 65.0 67.9 69.9 71.4 72.5 72.9 73.0 HEAT CONTENT 75 71 59 70 72 60 58 48 47 46 46 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 562 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 34. 38. 41. 43. 46. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. 44. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.79 Prob of RI= 29.0% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)