* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 51 50 46 40 34 26 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 51 50 46 40 34 26 21 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 16 19 18 23 38 48 53 51 52 34 23 SHEAR DIR 205 213 233 259 239 241 234 247 239 244 236 238 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.1 24.1 22.9 21.0 16.3 12.1 13.0 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 120 104 96 88 76 71 71 74 73 73 72 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -51.7 -49.9 -48.5 -46.6 -45.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 42 42 40 40 41 42 34 34 34 46 47 48 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 -1 -14 -2 0 1 11 0 77 -4 0 -8 850 MB VORT -20 -46 -56 -47 -61 -49 -32 -11 -23 26 59 63 76 LAND (KM) 547 512 506 437 387 346 267 226 591 986 1385 1248 881 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.9 38.7 39.7 40.6 42.4 44.4 46.3 48.4 50.3 51.9 53.6 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 67.0 65.9 64.4 62.9 59.3 55.1 50.2 44.9 39.6 34.2 29.0 23.5 HEAT CONTENT 26 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 14 CX,CY: 9/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 723 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -32. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 28. 35. 40. 41. 38. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. -32. -40. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -10. -16. -24. -29. -33. -41. -52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 25.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 3.79 Prob of RI= 9.2% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)