* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 55 60 63 64 66 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 55 60 63 64 66 68 70 SHEAR (KTS) 19 23 23 16 8 12 4 11 10 11 8 9 7 SHEAR DIR 247 249 261 268 225 245 197 220 218 217 208 226 200 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 155 157 157 155 157 157 155 154 157 160 160 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 61 56 56 60 59 46 47 37 35 32 36 36 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 7 6 5 2 9 4 3 -1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 23 9 -3 3 9 1 5 -4 -13 -39 -33 -36 -22 LAND (KM) 1175 1093 961 797 636 331 211 157 211 269 351 429 407 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.7 22.7 24.0 25.1 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 55.0 56.6 58.2 59.8 63.1 66.2 69.1 71.7 73.5 74.5 75.4 76.1 HEAT CONTENT 77 62 72 71 70 66 61 73 60 49 52 58 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 631 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 33. 37. 39. 42. 44. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 30. 35. 38. 39. 41. 43. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.89 Prob of RI= 33.2% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)