* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 48 47 43 38 34 28 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 48 47 43 38 34 28 25 20 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 24 22 30 36 34 45 47 51 49 44 38 N/A SHEAR DIR 229 239 251 247 254 246 253 238 249 237 242 235 9999 SST (C) 26.6 24.6 22.8 21.9 20.7 16.7 11.9 12.7 15.1 14.1 14.3 13.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 107 96 91 87 76 71 71 74 73 73 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -51.7 -50.2 -48.7 -47.9 -46.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 43 44 41 38 37 47 33 35 40 45 47 45 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -5 -9 -14 29 4 6 -16 15 -45 -11 -7 N/A 850 MB VORT -31 -33 -30 -41 -34 5 41 30 54 75 83 126 N/A LAND (KM) 483 456 378 377 325 289 213 569 956 1344 1278 904 N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.4 40.4 41.4 42.4 44.2 46.5 48.4 50.2 51.9 53.4 55.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.7 65.2 63.6 61.8 60.0 55.4 50.3 45.2 40.0 34.8 29.4 23.8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 15 CX,CY: 10/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 672 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -22. -28. -32. -38. -40. -42. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 25. 31. 39. 44. 45. 39. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -22. -26. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -24. -29. -37. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -25. -30. -38. -48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 23.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 2.97 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)