* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 46 52 55 59 65 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 46 52 55 59 65 71 73 SHEAR (KTS) 16 21 17 12 16 12 11 6 7 5 5 0 6 SHEAR DIR 238 261 275 262 249 281 217 241 212 246 168 49 159 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 157 155 155 157 159 159 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 46 49 52 56 55 56 55 52 46 47 44 44 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 3 2 4 4 2 -3 -3 0 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 27 15 27 32 26 6 -8 -37 -21 -16 2 -2 -13 LAND (KM) 761 693 561 459 366 269 346 440 461 443 452 451 477 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.0 20.2 21.6 22.5 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.8 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.2 60.4 61.4 62.3 64.1 65.6 66.7 67.5 68.3 69.1 70.1 71.2 HEAT CONTENT 81 78 83 65 71 56 44 46 45 40 43 47 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 710 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 28. 31. 36. 41. 47. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 34. 40. 46. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.13 Prob of RI= 13.3% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)