* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 31 39 47 51 54 56 59 62 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 31 39 47 51 54 56 59 62 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 7 7 7 4 4 11 8 18 9 10 9 SHEAR DIR 126 160 208 220 233 336 343 4 335 352 348 341 282 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 149 151 155 157 155 154 151 151 152 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 51 52 49 47 48 51 48 53 46 53 53 52 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 4 2 5 0 850 MB VORT -28 -26 -25 -12 4 19 21 35 9 -14 -32 -30 -33 LAND (KM) 1351 1228 1111 1007 914 728 601 569 479 332 282 350 435 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.3 43.6 45.0 46.3 49.1 51.9 54.4 56.5 58.3 59.9 61.6 63.4 HEAT CONTENT 34 39 47 58 62 50 77 79 75 86 73 67 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 562 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 20. 28. 32. 35. 36. 39. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 27. 31. 34. 36. 39. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.43 Prob of RI= 17.7% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)