* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 43 40 36 32 28 24 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 43 40 36 32 28 24 22 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 31 31 38 43 44 52 48 49 44 30 N/A SHEAR DIR 242 242 241 257 254 244 250 236 237 232 232 231 9999 SST (C) 24.1 23.0 22.2 20.6 18.0 12.7 11.8 14.8 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 97 93 86 79 71 70 73 72 72 72 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -51.3 -49.1 -47.8 -47.1 -45.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 46 39 36 35 38 40 40 39 46 47 50 57 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -18 11 6 0 -3 2 -39 4 -20 9 N/A 850 MB VORT -32 -28 -36 -32 -16 27 41 26 65 75 80 114 N/A LAND (KM) 438 391 387 342 358 146 480 894 1291 1345 989 701 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.6 40.6 41.5 42.6 43.7 45.8 48.3 50.3 52.0 53.7 55.0 57.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.7 62.9 61.1 58.9 56.7 51.7 46.4 40.9 35.6 30.5 25.2 19.6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 697 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -18. -25. -31. -35. -41. -43. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 28. 35. 43. 49. 49. 43. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -23. -27. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. -30. -39. -49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. -32. -40. -51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 27.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 21.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 41.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.40 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 2.31 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)